EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for February 24, 2020

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar on Monday, but inside Friday’s range. The move suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Fundamentally, the selling pressure resumed after Euro Zone money markets priced in around a 50% chance that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by 10 basis points in July, in a sign of increased concern that the spread of coronavirus will hit the Euro Zone economy hard.

At 12:31 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.0826, down 0.0023 or – 0.21%.

The biggest concern for Euro traders at this time is Italy. On Sunday, Italian officials raced to contain the biggest outbreak of coronavirus in Europe, sealing off the worst affected towns and banning public events in much of the north.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the upside late last week.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 1.1095. A move through 1.0778 will negate a closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 1.0864 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

The intermediate range is 1.0926 to 1.0778. Its retracement zone at 1.0852 to 1.0870 stopped the rally on Friday at 1.0864.

The short-term range is 1.0778 to 1.0864. The EUR/USD is currently straddling its retracement zone at 1.0821 to 1.0811.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0826, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.0821 and the Fibonacci level at 1.0811.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.0821 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the 50% level at 1.0852, followed by 1.0864 and the Fibonacci level at 1.0870.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.0811 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is an uptrending Gann angle at 1.0798. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.0778 main bottom.