EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for February 28, 2019

The Euro is trading higher on Thursday shortly before the release of the U.S. Advance GDP report at 13:30 GMT. After a month-long delay due to the federal government shutdown, data out Thursday is expected to show just how much the U.S. economy slowed in the fourth quarter, and what it could mean for 2019 economic growth.

At 12:59 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1410, up 0.0041 or +0.35%.

The report is expected to show gross domestic product expanded at a 2.3 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter following the best back-to-back gains since 2014, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of the Commerce Department report.

The Euro could rise if the GDP comes in lower-than-expected because this would put pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep a lid on interest rates. However, gains could be limited in the EUR/USD if investors decide to move money into the safe-haven U.S. Dollar.

 Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. This was reaffirmed earlier in the session. A trade through 1.1317 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 1.1514 to 1.1234. Its retracement zone at 1.1407 to 1.1374 is controlling the near-term direction. The EUR/USD is trading above this zone shortly after the U.S. opening, giving the Forex pair an upside bias.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the resistance cluster at 1.1414.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out 1.1414 and sustaining the rally will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend over the near-term into the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1464.

Bearish Scenario

A failure to overcome 1.1414 will indicate the buying is slowing. A sustained move under this area will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with the next targets at 1.1407 and 1.1397.

The Gann angle at 1.1397 is the trigger point for a potential acceleration to the downside with 1.1374 the next likely downside target. This is followed by a short-term uptrending Gann angle at 1.1357.

A failure at 1.1357 will also be a bearish signal with the next downside targets coming in at 1.1324 and 1.1317.