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James Hyerczyk

The Euro turned lower on Wednesday after stabilizing U.S. Treasury yields helped the dollar trade back in positive territory.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell more than 6 basis points from a 10-month high hit on Tuesday, briefly ending a three-day winning streak for the greenback. They last traded 2 basis points lower at 1.12%, helping the currency trade 0.1% higher against its peers.

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At 19:02 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2159, down 0.0048 or -0.39%.

In economic news, Euro Zone industrial production was much higher than expected in November, data showed on Wednesday, thanks to a rebound in the output of intermediate and capital goods that bode well for investment later in 2021.

In the U.S., according to the Department of Labor, in seasonally adjusted terms the U.S. consumer price index advanced at a month-on-month pace of 0.4%, which pushed the year-on-year rate of price increases to 1.4%.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will change to down on trade through 1.2025, while a move through 1.2349 reaffirms the uptrend.

The first minor range is 1.2349 to 1.2132. Its retracement zone at 1.2241 to 1.2266 is potential resistance.

The second minor range is 1.2025 to 1.2349. The EUR/USD has straddled its 50% level at 1.2187 the last three sessions.

The short-term range is 1.1800 to 1.2349. Its 50% level at 1.2074 is the last potential support before the main bottom at 1.2025.


Short-Term Outlook

Trader reaction to 1.2187 will set the tone into the close.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.2187 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger which could lead to an eventual test of 1.2074, followed by the main bottom at 1.2025. Not only will the trend change to down if this level is violated, but it could also trigger an acceleration to the downside.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.2187 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of a retracement zone at 1.2241 to 1.2266. Aggressive counter-trend sellers could come in on a test of this zone in an effort to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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