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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday. The currency is also trading inside Monday’s price range, which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Traders are awaiting the release of the ISM US Non-Manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders reports at 15:00 GMT. They are expected to come in at 54.5 and -0.6% respectively.

At 12:28 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1179, down 0.0018 or -0.16%.

Euro Zone inflation jumped as expected last month, offering some temporary relief for European Central Bank policymakers before price growth is expected to dip again.

Eurostat said on Tuesday that inflation in the 19 countries sharing the Euro currency rose to 1.3% as expected in December from 1.0% a month earlier as energy prices rebounded and the cost of food products rose.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. This is helping to give the EUR/USD a sideways look. The Forex pair is also trapped inside a series of retracement levels which is causing a two-sided trade.

A trade through 1.1313 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the last main bottom at 1.1067.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 1.1276 will change the minor trend to up. A move through 1.1125 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

On the upside, resistance is a pair of Fibonacci levels at 1.1185 and 1.1209. On the downside, the first support is a 50% level at 1.1146. This is followed by the main retracement zone at 1.1095 to 1.1044.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 1.1185.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1185 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is 1.1209. Overcoming this level could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1238.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1185 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a sharp break into 1.1146.

Crossing to the weak side of the 50% level at 1.1146 could trigger a further decline into the minor bottom at 1.1125, followed by the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1116.

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