James Hyerczyk
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The Euro is down shortly before the U.S. opening. Rising concerns over an escalation in the trade dispute between the United States and the European Union is one reason for the selling pressure. The other is a setback for German Chancellor Angela Merkel after her interior minister offered to quit in an escalating row over migration policy.

At 0931 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1648, down 0.0036 or -0.30%.

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Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the secondary higher bottom at 1.1527 on June 28. The main trend will change to up on a move through 1.1721.

A trade through 1.1527 will shift momentum to the downside. A move through 1.1509 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 1.1851 to 1.1509. Its retracement zone at 1.1680 to 1.1720 is acting like resistance. It stopped the rally earlier today at 1.1704 and on June 26 at 1.1721. Additional resistance is a longer-term 50% level at 1.1753.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1649.

A sustained move under 1.1649 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 1.1579. If this angle fails then look for the selling to extend into the next uptrending Gann angle at 1.1544. This angle stopped the selling last week on June 28. It is also the last potential support angle before the 1.1509 main bottom.

A sustained move over 1.1649 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a retest of the 50% level at 1.1680. Since the trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this level.

Overcoming 1.1680 could lead to a test of today’s intraday high at 1.1704, followed by the resistance cluster at 1.1720 to 1.1721.

Trader reaction to 1.1649 will tell us if aggressive counter-trend buyers are coming into the market, or if sellers are increasing pressure.

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