EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for July 22, 2019

The Euro is trading lower on Monday while posting a limited range. Keeping a floor on prices are expectations of a 25-basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on July 31. Helping to cap gains and generate downside pressure is anticipation of fresh stimulus from the European Central Bank on July 25.

At 12:27 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1216, down 0.0005 or -0.04%.

On Friday, investors ramped up bets for an ECB interest rate cut. Money markets are now pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a 10 basis point rate cut, versus a 40% chance early last week.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on June 25 at 1.1413.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through 1.1200. This is followed closely by main bottoms at 1.1193 and 1.1181. A trade through 1.1286 will reaffirm the uptrend.

The minor range is 1.1193 to 1.1286. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1240 is controlling the direction of the Forex pair today.

On the downside, the support is a long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1185. On the upside, the major resistance zone is 1.1278 to 1.1318.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1216, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the day is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of Gann angles at 1.1223 and 1.1212.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1223 will indicate the presence of buyers. This move could trigger an acceleration into the pivot at 1.1240. This is another trigger point for an acceleration into the main 50% level at 1.1278.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1212 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration into the main bottom at 1.1200.

A trade through 1.1200 will change the main trend to down. This could lead to quick tests of a main bottom at 1.1193, the major Fib level at 1.1185 and the main bottom at 1.1181. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the next uptrending Gann angle at 1.1160. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.1116 and 1.1107 main bottoms.