EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for July 3, 2018

The Euro is trading slightly higher, but inside yesterday’s range suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility. Volume is light which suggests investors may already be packing it in ahead of the U.S. Fourth of July holiday on Wednesday.

Some U.S. banks may even be shutting down early today. Others may even take the rest of the week off. So be careful buying strength and selling weakness because low volume can get you trapped.

At 1117 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1650, up 0.0011 or +0.0010.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1721 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1527 and 1.1509 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 1.1851 to 1.1509. Its retracement zone at $1.1680 to 1.1720 is the first upside target zone, followed by the long-term 50% level at 1.1753.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1669.

A sustained move under 1.1669 will indicate the presence of sellers. If the selling volume is strong enough, we may even see a test of an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1589.

A sustained move over 1.1669 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of the short-term 50% level at 1.1680. Overtaking this level with conviction could even drive the EUR/USD into the resistance cluster at 1.1720 to 1.1721.

Like I said earlier, volume is expected to be extremely low today and perhaps the rest of the week so be careful buying or selling breakouts. Don’t get caught in bear or bull traps because they can be unforgiving on low volume days.

If the major players decide to stick around for the full session then the trade could be decent but rangebound. If they leave then prices could be manipulated by big orders.