EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for July 6, 2018

The Euro recovered from early session weakness against the U.S. Dollar to turn higher for the session in reaction to strong German industrial orders and signs Washington had softened its trade rhetoric towards European Union automakers.

At 1144 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1719, up 0.0025 or +0.24%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Subtly, and without much fanfare, or follow-through, the EUR/USD turned higher earlier in the session when buyers took out the previous main top at 1.1721.

The new main bottoms are 1.1527 and 1.1509. A trade through these levels will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 1.1851 to 1.1509. Its retracement zone at 1.1680 to 1.1720 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD. Over this zone is a major 50% level at 1.1753. It could act as resistance, or a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1718, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 1.1720 and the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1729.

A sustained move under 1.1729 will indicate the presence of sellers. It will also mean the market is rejecting the weak change in trend. This could trigger a break into a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1691, followed by a 50% level at 1.1680.

Since the trend is up, watch for a technical bounce on the first test of 1.1680. If it fails then prepare for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 1.1619.

A sustained move over the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1729 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a spike into the long-term 50% level at 1.1753, followed closely by a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1771.

The angle at 1.1771 could act like resistance on the first test, but overtaking it could trigger an acceleration into the next downtrending Gann angle at 1.1811. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 1.1851 main top.

Basically, we’re looking for the bullish tone to continue on a sustained move over 1.1729 and for a bearish tone to develop if the selling is strong enough to sustain a break under 1.1680.