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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading slightly higher on Tuesday. The currency is inside yesterday’s range and Friday’s wide range. This tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility. Today’s U.S. Producer Inflation report offered no help, coming in as expected. Core PPI was 0.2% and PPI was 0.1%.

Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in June or July are probably underpinning the Euro against the dollar. However, gains are likely being capped by a new Euro Zone survey that showed investor morale deteriorated sharply in June, falling well short of expectations. The Sentix Investor Confidence survey came in at minus 3.3, lower than the 2.3 forecast and the 5.3 previous read.

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At 13:09 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1318, up 0.0006 or +0.05%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1348 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This is the last main top before the March 21 main top at 1.1448. A trade through 1.1204 will change the main trend to down.

The major retracement zone is 1.1278 to 1.1318. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD. The Forex pair is currently straddling its upper or Fibonacci level at 1.1318.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 1.1318.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1318 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into 1.1348. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of a pair of Gann angles at 1.1367 and 1.1375. Look for an acceleration to the upside if 1.1375 is taken out.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1318 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a test of the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1302. If this angle fails as support then look for a break into the 50% level at 1.1278. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 1.1237.

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