EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for June 20, 2019
The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar as traders adjust positions to the possibility of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July. The move is being driven by a dovish Federal Reserve monetary policy statement, and remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Fed Fund futures are also indicating that traders are pricing in rate cuts for July, September and December.
At 11:00 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1305, up 0.0078 or +0.70%.
Despite the dovish Fed, the Forex pair is trading only slightly higher than the level it was at when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi issued his dovish remarks on Tuesday. This tells me that we’re still in the position-squaring or short-covering stage of the rally. It’s a whole new ballgame if buyers can take out the June 12 top at 1.1348.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend changed to down when sellers took out the 1.1204 main bottom. The main trend will change to up on a move through 1.1348. A trade through 1.1181 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The major retracement zone is 1.1270 to 1.1318. This zone has been acting like resistance. The EUR/USD is currently trading inside this zone.
The main range is 1.1107 to 1.1348. Its retracement zone at 1.1227 to 1.1199 is support along with the long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1185. This area essentially launched this week’s rally.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1307.
A sustained move over 1.1307 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a quick rally into the resistance cluster at 1.1318. Overcoming this level should lead to a test of a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1333. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 1.1348 main top. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
The inability to overcome 1.1307 and a sustained under this level will signal the return of sellers. This could trigger a break into a series of levels at 1.1288, 1.1270 and 1.1261.
The daily chart opens up to the downside under the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1261. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next support cluster coming in at 1.1227.
Momentum is to the upside at this time. A sustained move over 1.1318 should reaffirm the upside bias. The bias could shift to the downside if the 50% level at 1.1270 fails as support.