EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for June 21, 2019

The Euro is inching higher on Friday, while hovering near its high for the week. The single-currency is in a position to close higher for the week. Fundamentally, prices are being supported today by reports that showed French and German business activity strengthened more than expected in June, according to surveys.

At 11:02 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1309, up 0.0018 or +0.16%.

Despite today’s inside move, which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility, the EUR/USD is expected to be underpinned over the near-term because a Federal Reserve interest rate cut for July has been 100% priced-in and the probability of additional rate cuts in September and December is over 50%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 1.1348 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1181 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The EUR/USD is currently trading inside a retracement zone bounded by 1.1278 to 1.1318. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is 1.1107 to 1.1348. Its retracement zone at 1.1227 to 1.1199 is support. The major support is a long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1185.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1278 and the 61.8% level at 1.1318.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1318 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1331. Taking out this angle could trigger a surge into the main top at 1.1348. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next major target the March 21 main top at 1.1448.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome 1.1318 will signal the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1301 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the potential support cluster at 1.1278.

The support cluster at 1.1278 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 1.1241. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this angle. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into 1.1227 to 1.1185.