James Hyerczyk
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The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar on Wednesday as weaker demand for higher risk assets drove up demand for the safe-haven greenback. Firmer U.S. Treasury yields on the back of strong U.S. economic data on Tuesday and a warning by a European Central Bank (ECB) official also weighed on prices.

At 12:45 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1275, down 0.0032 or -0.28%.

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Solid data may not be a good guide to how the Euro Zone is recovering from its deepest economic crisis in living memory, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said on Wednesday, cooling expectations after some surprisingly strong figures.

Lane said that while “substantial improvement” in near-term indicators was normal given the depth of the contraction, this was not a good guide to the future, and activity would remain far below pre-crisis levels for an extended period given lingering restrictions.

“Income losses and precautionary savings continue to weigh on consumption,” he said. “Likewise, weak demand, continued supply constraints and ongoing social distancing restrictions are hampering the normalization of economic activity.”

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1168 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.1422 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.1353 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 1.1422 to 1.1168. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1295 is controlling the price action today.

The main retracement zone support is 1.1167 to 1.1066.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1275, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 1.1295.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1295 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a test of 1.1349 and 1.1353. Taking out 1.1353 could trigger a surge into the main top at 1.1422.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1295 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target a support cluster at 1.1168 to 1.1167. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target a 50% level at 1.1066.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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