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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar on Wednesday shortly before the regular session opening. The currency is currently trading inside yesterday’s range which indicate investor indecision and impending volatility. Traders are holding the Euro in a range ahead of the release of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report at 12:30 GMT. This report could set the tone for the day.

At 10:27 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1360, down 0.0007 or -0.06%.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell created a little uncertainty in the market with somewhat hawkish comments about Fed policy. Traders were looking for him to confirm a rate cut for late July. Instead, he failed to offer any clues about the criteria the central bank would use to determine if a rate cut was even necessary. This rattled investors who had priced in a 100% chance of a rate cut.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but yesterday’s potentially bearish closing price reversal top suggests momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside.

A trade through 1.1413 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A move through 1.1344 will confirm the chart pattern. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction with 1.1297 to 1.1270 the next potential target.

The main retracement zone at 1.1318 to 1.1278 is also potential support. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1361.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1361 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then we could see a retest of the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1405. This is followed by the closing price reversal top at 1.1413.

Overtaking 1.1413 could lead to a test of an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1421. Crossing to the strong side of this angle will put the EUR/USD in a bullish position with the March 21 main top at 1.1448 the next likely target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1361 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out 1.1344 will confirm the reversal top. This could trigger an acceleration into the major Fibonacci level at 1.1318, followed by an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1301 and a short-term 50% level at 1.1297.

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