EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for June 28, 2021

The Euro is being pressured by a stronger U.S. Dollar on Monday as investor focus shifted to the U.S. labor market, following softer-than-expected inflation data last week that has done little to soothe concerns about the Federal Reserve dialing down its monetary stimulus.

At 13:25 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 91.905, up 0.061 or +0.07%.

The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.5%, short of expectations for a 0.6% rise.

Signs of a tight labor market have also kept many investors fretting over wage-driven price pressures. Among a raft of economic indicators this week, Friday’s payroll data is a key focus – with economists expecting an increase of 675,000 jobs.

Friday’s job report will provide investors with some clarity as to how long it will take for the labor market to fully recover from the jobs lost during the pandemic.

The Euro could rise if the jobs data passes without a surprise.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1848 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.2218 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.1975 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is 1.1704 to 1.2266. The EUR/USD is currently testing the lower level of its retracement zone at 1.1985 to 1.1919.

The minor range is 1.1848 to 1.1975. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1911 is potential support.

On the upside, potential resistance is a long-term 50% level at 1.2027. This is followed by a short-term retracement zone at 1.2057 to 1.2106.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1911 and 1.1919.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1911 will indicate the presence of sellers. Increased selling volume could trigger an acceleration into the recent main bottom at 1.1848. This price is also a trigger point for the start of a steep break.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1919 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the minor top at 1.1975, followed by the 50% level at 1.1985. The latter could launch a rally into a series of potential resistance levels at 1.2027, 1.2057 and 1.2106.