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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading higher on Monday, led by recent weak U.S. economic activity and expectations for an accommodative Federal Reserve. The single-currency has been rallying since hitting its low of the year on March 7 following a dovish message from the European Central Bank.

Bullish traders are expecting the Fed to strike a dovish tone when it meets this week, and bets for an interest rate cut have risen after weaker-than-expected manufacturing data on Friday that drove U.S. bond yields to a 10-week low.

At 11:42 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1355, up 0.0029 or +0.26%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, Momentum is trending higher. A trade through 1.1420 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1177 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down, but momentum shifted to the upside earlier today when buyers took out the closing price reversal top at 1.1342 with conviction.

The main range is 1.1420 to 1.1177. Its retracement zone is 1.1327 to 1.1299. Trading above this zone is giving the EUR/USD an upside bias. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair. Traders should treat the zone as support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1360.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out 1.1360 with conviction and sustaining the move will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the next downtrending Gann angle at 1.1390. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 1.1420 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1360 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a possibly retest of the Fibonacci level at 1.1327 and the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1317. If this price fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the support cluster at 1.1299. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the downside.

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