EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for March 19, 2019

The Euro is trading slightly higher on Tuesday on low volume as traders prepare for tomorrow’s major U.S. Federal Reserve announcements. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but investors will get most of their clues for future policy moves from the Federal Open Market Committee’s economic projections.

The FOMC is expected to lower its interest rate forecasts, or “dot plots”, to show little or no further tightening in 2019. Given the current weakness in the global economy, Euro investors are looking for the Fed to adopt a cautious tone. These expectations are underpinning the single-currency.

At 14:00 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1347, up 0.0007 or +0.065.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1362 will reaffirm the uptrend. The EUR/USD is in no danger of changing the trend to down, but it is in the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

The main range is 1.1420 to 1.1177. Its retracement zone is 1.1327 to 1.1299. Holding above this zone is giving the market an upside bias. Traders should treat this area as support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1347, the direction of the EUR/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1355.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1355 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 1.1362 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a spike into the next downtrending Gann angle at 1.1388. However, given the low volume and the absence of any major players, it’s hard to envision a strong rally today.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1355 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1337. This angle has been guiding the EUR/USD higher since the 1.1177 main bottom on March 7.

Taking out 1.1337 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the Fib level at 1.1327.

The Fibonacci level at 1.1327 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the 50% level at 1.1299 the next major target.

Basically, we’re looking for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 1.1355, and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under 1.1337.