EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for March 24, 2021

The Euro is trading lower on Wednesday but off its four-month low reached earlier in the session. The early pressure is coming from renewed concerns over coronavirus-related lockdowns in Germany. Perhaps helping to generate a bounce is the news that the Euro Zone economy returned to growth in March due to strong factory activity.

At 10:35 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1828, down 0.0020 or -0.17%.

The bearish news is that Germany extended a lockdown and urged its citizens to stay at home during the Easter holiday.

On the bullish side, Euro Zone economic activity made a surprise return to growth this month as factories ramped up production to its fastest pace in over 23 years, offsetting a continuing slowdown in the bloc’s dominant services industry, a preliminary survey showed.

Despite the surprise PMI growth, the news represents stale data. Conditions are expected to worsen in April with much of Europe suffering a third wave of coronavirus infections and renewed lockdown measures. This likely means that traders will be looking to sell rallies.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trade through 1.1836 reaffirmed the downtrend. A trade through 1.1989 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.1947 will change the minor trend to up.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1848.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1848 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could create the downside momentum needed to challenge 1.1800. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this level. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into 1.1745.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1848 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 1.1901.