EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for March 29, 2021

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar on Monday as investors continue to bet that continuing U.S. economic strength combined with a highly successful vaccination rollout will help the U.S. economy recover from the pandemic damage sooner than the Euro Zone.

At 10:51 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1773, down 0.0021 or -0.18%.

The common currency is heading for its worst month since mid-2019 as Europe’s faltering vaccination program runs into a wave of new infections, a bearish signal as positioning data shows investors remain heavily short.

While the pace of U.S. vaccinations has been impressive, European inoculations have been plagued by supply problems and safety concerns. Last week, the head of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases also warned a third wave of the virus could be the worst so far, and on Sunday Chancellor Angela Merkel raised the possibility of curfews to bring it under control.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1762 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Taking out the November 11, 2020 main bottom at 1.1745 will reaffirm the downtrend.

A trade through 1.1989 will change the main trend to up. This is highly unlikely but today is the seventh day down from the last main top which puts the EUR/USD inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.1947 will change the minor trend to up.

The main range is 1.1603 to 1.2349. The market is trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 1.1888 to 1.1976. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the common currency.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1828 and 1.1762.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1762 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick move into 1.1745. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 1.1603 the next major downside target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1828 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move is able to create enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into 1.1888 over the short-run.