EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for March 9, 2020

The Euro is trading higher on Monday, shortly after the U.S., opening even after giving back nearly half of its earlier gains. Earlier in the session, buyers blasted through the June 25, 2019 main top at 1.1413 and the March 20, 2019 main top at 1.1448, before stopping at 1.1496, just below its January 31, 2019 main top at 1.1514.

At 11:32 GMT, the EUR/USD is at 1.1418, up 0.0128 or +1.13%.

It wasn’t the Euro that strengthened, per se, but rather the U.S. Dollar that cratered. Investors are dumping dollars because of the collapse in U.S. Treasury yields. The benchmark yield is at 0.318%, after trading above 1% a few days earlier, as traders shed risky assets and head for the safety of government bond markets.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed when buyers took out main tops at 1.1413 and 1.1448. The uptrend will resume if buyers can take out today’s intraday high at 1.1496 with 1.1514 the next upside target.

Today’s price action is momentum based which means the EUR/USD can reverse to the downside if the momentum slows. A close below Friday’s finish at 1.1290 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could fuel a 2 to 3 day counter-trend correction.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by Friday’s close at 1.1290.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1290 will indicate the presence of buyers. Holding above 1.1413 will indicate a steady stream of buyers. Staying above 1.1148 will signal the buying is getting stronger.

Taking out 1.1496 should lead to a test of 1.1514. Overtaking this level could trigger an acceleration into the January 10, 2019 main top at 1.1570.

Bearish Scenario

The intraday activity indicates that a failure to hold 1.1413 could be a sign that the buying is weakening or the selling is getting stronger.

Falling below 1.1290 will turn the EUR/USD lower for the session, putting the Forex pair in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

Additionally, watch the price action and read the order flow on a test of a steep uptrending Gann angle at 1.1258. This angle, moving up at a rate of 0.0040 per session since the 1.0778 bottom on February 20, has been guiding the EUR/USD higher for 12 sessions. A failure to hold as support could trigger an acceleration to the downside.