EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for May 30, 2019

The Euro is trading slightly higher shortly before the release of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product report at 12:30 GMT. Traders are looking for the report to show the economy grew 3.1% during the first quarter. This is down from the 3.2% first estimate.

The data is stale so we may not see much of a reaction from traders. Besides, we’re already two months into the second quarter and conditions have changed a lot. Some analysts are already pricing in second quarter GDP at 2% to 1%. Based on the recent drop in Treasury yields, traders are already looking for an economic slowdown and a potential rate cut by the Fed.

At 12:24 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1136, up 0.0005 or +0.05%.

We’re just going to go with the simple approach. The report will be bullish on a read over 3.2% and bearish on a read under 3.1%. How it affects the Euro is unknown because other factors such as geopolitics and U.S.-China trade relations are also impacting the Euro and the U.S. Dollar at this time.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the upside with the formation of the closing price reversal bottom at 1.1107 on May 23. We’re already below the close on that day so momentum is not that strong.

A trade through 1.1215 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1107 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The weekly chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside under this level so don’t be surprised by an acceleration to the downside if this level is violated with rising selling volume.

The short-term range is 1.1107 to 1.1215. Its retracement zone at 1.1148 to 1.1161 is resistance.

The major resistance is a long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1185.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1132.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1132 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into a Fib level at 1.1148, followed by a pair of Gann angles at 1.1155 and 1.1157.

Sellers could come in on a test of 1.1155 to 1.1157. However, look for an acceleration to the upside if 1.1157 is taken out. The daily chart indicates there is room to rally with a price cluster at 1.1185 the best upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1132 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target angle is 1.1120. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.1107 main bottom. If this bottom fails then look out to the downside.