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James Hyerczyk

The Euro edged higher against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday as investors appeared to waver between optimism and caution over expectations about a COVID-19 vaccine that is unlikely to avert a grim winter in Europe and the United States as the pandemic’s second wave intensifies. Both areas are grappling with surging infections and new coronavirus restrictions.

At 13:04 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1799, up 0.0020 or +0.17%.

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In other news, Euro Zone industrial production unexpectedly declined in September, driven chiefly by a sharp fall in the output of durable consumer goods, sounding a negative note to a quarter that had begun strongly.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on Monday.

A move through 1.1920 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through 1.1603 changes the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. The inside move suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

The main range is 1.2011 to 1.1603. Its retracement zone is 1.1807 to 1.1855. Inside this zone is minor pivot resistance at 1.1832.

The short-term range is 1.1603 to 1.1920. Its retracement zone at 1.1762 to 1.1724 is support. This zone stopped the selling at 1.1745 on Wednesday.

The major support zone is 1.1691 to 1.1616.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is currently trading inside a pair of 50% level at 1.1762 to 1.1807. Trader reaction to these levels should determine the direction of the Forex pair today.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1807 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first two targets are 1.1832 and 1.1855. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 1.1920 the next likely upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1762 will signal the presence of sellers. This is followed by 1.1745 and 1.1724. Taking out 1.1724 could trigger an acceleration into 1.1691.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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