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James Hyerczyk

The Euro weakened and Euro Zone government bond yields rose on Monday after Moderna said its experimental vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19 based on interim data from a late-stage trial.

It became the second U.S. drugmaker after Pfizer last week to report results that far exceed expectations, boosting risk sentiment across markets, which hurt safe-haven government bonds.

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At 15:31 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1834, down 0.0018 or -0.15%.

Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield rose as much as up 3 basis points to -0.52%, although it remained below two-month highs at -0.456% hit last week after the Pfizer news.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on November 9.

A trade through 1.1920 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through 1.1745 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 1.2011 to 1.1603. The EUR/USD is currently straddling its retracement zone at 1.1807 to 1.1855.

The minor range is 1.1920 to 1.1745. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1832 is also being straddled.

The short-term range is 1.1603 to 1.1920. Its retracement zone at 1.1762 to 1.1724 is support. This zone stopped the selling at 1.1745 on November 11.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The near-term direction of the EUR/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1807 and 1.1855.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1855 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at 1.1920.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1807 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a further decline into 1.1762 to 1.1724.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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