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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is climbing against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday, helped by optimism over another coronavirus vaccine. Gains are expected to be short-lived, however, due to lingering concerns over the recovery in the Euro Zone.

The Euro Zone is facing a drawn-out recovery from a deep recession and needs more support from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and governments, several policymakers said on Monday – just as the EU’s recovery fund hit its biggest obstacle yet.

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At 14:51 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1879, up 0.0023 or +0.19%.

In other news, U.S. retail sales increased less than expected in October and could slow further, retrained by spiraling new COVID-19 infections and declining household income. Retail sales rose 0.3% last month, the Commerce Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would gain 0.5% in October.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1920 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 1.1745 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 1.2011 to 1.1603. The EUR/USD is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 1.1855 to 1.1807, putting it in a bullish position and reestablishing support at this zone.

The minor range is 1.1920 to 1.1745. Its 50% level at 1.1832 is additional support.

The short-term range is 1.1603 to 1.1920. Its retracement zone at 1.1762 to 1.1724 is support. It stopped the selling at 1.1745 on November 11.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The main Fibonacci level at 1.1855 is controlling the direction of the EUR/USD on Tuesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1855 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move created enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at 1.1920. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 1.2011 the next upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1855 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with potential support coming in at 1.1832 and 1.1807. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 1.1762 to 1.1724.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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