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James Hyerczyk
EuroDollar Notes

The Euro is trading higher shortly before the U.S. market opening. The single-currency is being supported by a weaker U.S. Dollar. The dollar is under pressure due to the growing view that U.S. economic growth may have peaked. Additionally, dovish Fed comments on Friday are encouraging dollar investors to pare positions and take profits after the greenback hit a 16-month high last week.

At 1127 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1422, up 0.0006 or +0.05%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, the Forex pair has crossed to the strong side of a short-term retracement zone, suggesting momentum has shifted to the upside.

The main trend will change to up on a move through 1.1501. A trade through 1.1216 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is 1.1501 to 1.1216. Its retracement zone at 1.1392 to 1.1359 is new support. Trading on the strong side of this zone is helping to give the market its current upside bias.

The next target is a major 50% level at 1.1447.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at 1.1422, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of Gann angles at 1.1416 and 1.1421.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1421 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the 50% level at 1.1447. This is followed closely by another downtrending Gann angle at 1.1461. Another downtrending Gann angle comes in at 1.1481. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 1.1501 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1416 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a retest of the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.1392.

The Fib level at 1.1392 is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the 50% level at 1.1359 the next major target. The daily opens up to the downside under this level for another acceleration to the downside.

Basically, we’re expecting the upside bias to continue on a sustained move over 1.1421 and for a downside bias to begin on a sustained move under 1.1416.

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