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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar as broad optimism about COVID-19 vaccines ran into worries about rising coronavirus infection numbers and risks to the fragile global economic recovery.

In other news, EU leaders are scheduled to meet later on Thursday to discuss the COVID crisis, which could include talks about the region’s recovery fund and pressure the single-currency.

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Additionally, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde called on European Union leaders on Thursday to end a potentially damaging budget impasse and unlock aid for a region that is facing a severe hit from a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

At 14:54 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1820, down 0.0036 or -0.30%.

Lagarde said, “The Euro area economy is expected to be severely affected by the fallout from the rapid increase in infections and the reinstatement of containment measures, posing a clear downside risk to the near-term economic outlook.”

With the Euro Zone heading back into recession this quarter, Lagarde repeated a promise to ease policy at the ECB’s December 10 meeting, with measures focused on more emergency government bond buys and cheap loans to banks.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending lower. A trade through 1.1920 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 1.1745.

The minor trend is also up, but the EUR/USD formed a new minor top at 1.1894, suggesting a new secondary lower top may be forming. This is potentially bearish.

The main range is 1.2011 to 1.1603. The EUR/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 1.1807 to 1.1855. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is 1.1603 to 1.1920. Its retracement zone at 1.1762 to 1.1724 is the primary downside target.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1807.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1806 will indicate that buyers are still coming in to defend the uptrend, but they are going to have to recapture the Fibonacci level at 1.1855 to get excited about the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1807 will signal the presence of sellers. This could create the momentum needed to trigger an acceleration into 1.1762.

Side Notes

The daily chart suggests the way of least resistance is down.

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