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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar after posting a two-sided trade earlier in the session. It’s currently in a position to post a small weekly gain, which is more of a function of a weaker greenback then a stronger Euro.

European Union leaders clashed on Thursday over Hungary and Poland vetoing the bloc’s 1.8 trillion-Euro ($2.14 trillion) recovery plan but decided to allow more time for an agreement. The Euro was unaffected.

At 13:32 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1862, down 0.0015 or -0.12%.

Although the euphoria over a successful coronavirus vaccine underpinned the Euro this week, traders are beginning to question whether it will arrive in a timely manner. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to increase stimulus in December.

Traders are also reacting in a two-sided manner, driven by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s decision to end some of the Federal Reserve’s pandemic lending.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but the rally stalled on November 9 with the formation of a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

A trade through 1.1920 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the nearest swing bottom at 1.1745.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 1.1816 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the shift in momentum to the downside.

The main range is 1.2011 to 1.1603. Its retracement zone at 1.1807 to 1.1855 is controlling the direction of the Forex pair. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading on the strong side of this zone, giving it an early upside bias.

The short-term range is 1.1603 to 1.1920. Its retracement zone at 1.1762 to 1.1724 is a potential downside target.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1855.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1855 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking 1.1894 will indicate the buying is getting stronger, while a move through 1.1920 could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1855 will signal the presence of sellers. This could spike prices into 1.1816 to 1.1807. A failure at this level could lead to an even sharper break into 1.1762.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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