EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for November 21, 2021

The Euro is lower at the mid-session on Friday in a lackluster trade. The single currency is off its almost 16-month low, but the price action suggests the move is being fueled by position-squaring ahead of the weekend rather than aggressive counter-trend buying.

At 18:22 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1449, down 0.0001 or -0.00%.

The EUR/USD has been under pressure for weeks but especially since last Wednesday when data showed a broad-based rise in U.S. consumer prices last month at the fastest annual pace since 1990. The data has prompted investors to increase bets on a sooner-than-expected rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

As of Friday morning, the markets were pricing a first post-pandemic rate increase by July and a high likelihood of another by November. CME data is assigning a 50% probability of a rate hike by then, compared with less than 30% a month earlier.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 1.1433 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through 1.1608 will change the main trend to up.

The first minor range is 1.1608 to 1.1433. Its pivot at 1.1521 is the nearest resistance.

The second minor range is 1.1692 to 1.1433. Its pivot at 1.1563 is the next potential resistance.

The third minor range is 1.1755 to 1.1433. Its 50% level at 1.154 is another potential resistance level.

The major resistance is the retracement zone at 1.1671 to 1.1727.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1449.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1449 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at 1.1433 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 1.1371 the next likely downside target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1449 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a test of the first pivot at 1.1521.

A close over 1.1449 will form a daily closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed early next week, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.