EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for November 26, 2018

Euro traders shed early session weakness to move higher for the session. The move is being fueled by increased risk appetite after the European Union and Britain agreed on a Brexit deal. Additional support is being provided by reports that Italy may be willing to compromise over its 2019 budget plans. In other news, government data released on Friday showed that long dollar positions have declined slightly, while net weekly positions in the Euro rose by their biggest weekly margin in more than two months.

At 1355 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.3647, up 0.0027 or +0.24%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1474 will change the main trend to up. This could lead to a test of the next main top at 1.1501.

The early price action today suggests the EUR/USD may be forming a minor reversal bottom. More importantly however, it could be forming a secondary higher bottom. A trade through 1.1216 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The short-term range is 1.1216 to 1.1474. Its retracement zone at 1.1345 to 1.1315 is providing support. Today’s low at 1.1327 was hit inside this zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 1.1345.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1345 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then look for a potential rally into the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1394. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this Gann angle.

Overcoming 1.1394 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a further rally into an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1416. Crossing to the strong side of this angle will likely lead to a test of the next downtrending Gann angle at 1.1434. This is followed by a major 50% level at 1.1447, another downtrending Gann angle at 1.1454 and the main top at 1.1474.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1345 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of today’s intraday low at 1.1327, followed by the support cluster at 1.1316 to 1.1315.

The Fibonacci level at 1.1315 is very important support. If it fails, the EUR/USD could plunge into the next uptrending Gann angle at 1.1266. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.1216 main bottom.