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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is getting pounded by the stronger U.S. Dollar on Tuesday as investors flock to the greenback on growing optimism the United States and China are on the verge of reaching a preliminary agreement to scale back their prolonged trade war that that has inflicted damage on both economies.

At 13:18 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1107, down 0.0021 or -0.20%.

Traders are being driven into the U.S. Dollar amid encouraging signs of progress in trade talks. The government is even considering dropping some tariffs on Chinese goods, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

Bloomberg also reported that China is reviewing locations in the United States where he could sign a so-called “Phase 1” trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Essentially, it comes down to the interest rate differential. Although the Fed cut its benchmark rate last week, while the European Central Bank (ECB) held policy in check, the stronger U.S. economy and the possibility of a trade deal are driving Treasury yields higher, making the U.S. Dollar a more attractive asset.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. Furthermore, a secondary lower top may be forming, which often indicates the selling may be greater than the buying at current price levels.

A trade through 1.1176 and 1.1179 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 1.1073.

The minor trend is down. It turned lower earlier today when sellers took out the minor bottom at 1.1128. This move also shifted momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is 1.1073 to 1.1176. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1126 is new resistance.

The second minor range is 1.0991 to 1.1179. Its pivot at 1.1085 is the next downside target.

The main range is 1.0879 to 1.1179. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 1.1029 to 1.0994 will become the primary downside target.


Daily Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Tuesday will be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1129 and the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1124. Between these angles is the 50% level at 1.1126.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1124 will indicate the presence of sellers. This move is currently taking place. If this move continues to generate enough downside momentum then look for the break to extend into the 50% level at 1.1085. This is followed by a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1069. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the EUR/USD in an extremely bearish position.

Bullish Scenario

Overcoming 1.1129 will signal the return of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1152.

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