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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading lower shortly before the U.S. opening. Traders are a little on edge due to the U.S. mid-term elections with many of the major players on the sidelines. In other news, Euro Zone finance ministers called on Italy overnight to change its 2019 budget to conform to European Union rules before a deadline set for next week, but Rome dug in its heels saying its disputed deficit plan would not change.

At 1142 GMT, the EUR/USD is at 1.1399, down 0.0009 or -0.08%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A move through 1.1301 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.1458 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside. The new minor bottom is 1.1355.

The main range is 1.1555 to 1.1302. Its retracement zone at 1.1428 to 1.1458 is new resistance.

The short-term range is 1.1302 to 1.1458. Its retracement zone at 1.1380 to 1.1362 is new support. This zone stopped the selling on Monday. Aggressive counter-trend buyers are trying to form a secondary higher bottom.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 1.1428.

A sustained move under 1.1428 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target is a support cluster at 1.1382 to 1.1380. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this area. If 1.1380 fails as support then look for a potential break into the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.1362, followed by the minor bottom at 1.1355. This is followed by an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1342.

Overtaking 1.1428 and sustaining the rally could drive the EUR/USD into a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1445. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this angle. Overcoming this angle could trigger a further rally into the main Fibonacci level at 1.1458, followed by a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1472.

Volume is light, but given the early price action, it looks as if there is enough downside momentum present to drive the EUR/USD into the short-term retracement zone at 1.1380 to 1.1362.

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