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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is drifting slightly higher against the U.S. Dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited fresh developments in the U.S.-China trade talks. Bullish dollar traders seem to be waiting for news that an actual deal is nearing completion and that there is a venue in place for the signing of the pact.

At 13:23 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1089, up 0.0015 or +0.14%.

Data released earlier in the session showed German industrial orders rose more than expected in September, offering a glimmer of hope for an export-powered economy hit hard by global trade tensions. This news also lent some support to the single-currency.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down when sellers took out the previous main bottom at 1.1073 on Tuesday. The main trend will change to up on a trade through the last swing top at 1.1176.

The minor range is 1.0991 to 1.1179. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1085 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this level will determine whether there is a counter-trend short-covering rally, or a continuation of the selling pressure.

The main range is 1.0879 to 1.1179. Its retracement zone at 1.1029 to 1.0994 is the next downside target. Buyers may show up on a test of this area. An uptrending Gann angle at 1.1009 passes through this zone on Wednesday, making it a valid downside target.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1085.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1085 will indicate the presence of buyers. This move could trigger a counter-trend rally into the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1119. Since the main trend is down, sellers could re-emerge on the move.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1085 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1059. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the EUR/USD in a position to accelerate to the downside with the next major target the 50% level at 1.1029.

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