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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading flat against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday after failing to follow-through to the upside following early session strength related to an easing of tensions between the United States and China, which reduced the greenback’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

In other news, the Euro Zone economy will continue to grow in the second half of the year, even if only modestly, boosted by private consumption and a small growth in employment, the European Central Bank said in an Economic Bulletin on Thursday.

At 14:06 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1069, up 0.0002 or 0.02%.

“Incoming data and survey results point to moderate but positive economic growth in the second half of 2019,” the ECB said in a bulletin, which is largely consistent with its October policy statement. “This growth pattern can be primarily attributed to weak global trade and prolonged uncertainties.”

“Risks to the global economy remain to the downside amid a further escalation of trade disputes, high uncertainty related to Brexit and a potentially slower recovery in a number of emerging market economies,” the ECB added.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will change to up on a trade through the last main top at 1.1176.

The minor trend is also down with the minor bottom at 1.0991 the next downside target.

The short-term range is 1.0991 to 1.1179. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1085 is currently acting like resistance.

The main range is 1.0879 to 1.1179. Its retracement zone at 1.1029 to 1.0994 is the primary downside target. Buyers could step in on a test of this zone.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 1.1085.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1085 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1049. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a further break into the main 50% level at 1.1029, followed closely by an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1014.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1085 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to continue into the next downtrending Gann angle at 1.1114.

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