EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for October 11, 2021

The Euro is trading flat-to-lower on Monday in light volume due to the U.S. bank holiday. Traders are showing little follow-through reaction to Friday’s mixed U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and another rise in U.S. Treasury yields.

Volatility is likely to pick-up on Tuesday when the major players return to action after taking a few days to digest the U.S. jobs report. The key issue with the report is whether or not it was strong enough to encourage the Federal Reserve to begin tapering its massive stimulus starting in November.

At 13:39 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1574, down 0.0002 or -0.01%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1529 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.1755 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.1640 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 1.1640 to 1.1529. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1585 is acting like resistance.

The second minor range is 1.1755 to 1.1529. Its 50% level at 1.1642 forms a resistance cluster with the minor top.

The short-term range is 1.1909 to 1.1529. If the minor trend changes to up then its retracement zone at 1.1719 to 1.1764 will become the primary upside target zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Monday will be determined by trader reaction to 1.1585. It would be nice to see a breakout to the upside over 1.1585 but the low volume will be a threat to its success.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1585 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move can create enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the resistance at 1.1640 – 11.642 over the short-run.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1585 will indicate the presence of sellers. They will be defending the trend. If the move attracts enough sellers then look for the break to extend into last week’s low at 1.1529. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside since the next major support doesn’t come in until 1.1371.