EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for October 14, 2021

The Euro is trading higher on Thursday in reaction to lower Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. Dollar. The price action suggests short-covering and profit-taking is taking place after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s September meeting, released Wednesday afternoon, showed that the central bank could begin the tapering process in mid-November or mid-December.

At 10:22 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1608, up 0.0012 or +0.11%.

The price action also suggests a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” reaction to the hawkish Fed minutes. If this is the case, we could see a counter-trend rally until the next Fed meeting on November 2-3. At this meeting, the Fed is expected to address its plans to begin tapering its massive stimulus and possibly its timetable for future rate hikes.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Swing Chart

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1755 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1524 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.1640 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 1.1640 to 1.1524. The EUR/USD is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 1.1582, making it support.

The short-term range is 1.1755 to 1.1524. Its 50% level at 1.1640 forms a potential resistance cluster with the minor top.

The main range is 1.1909 to 1.1524 is the primary upside target and resistance zone. It is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1582.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1582 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 1.1640. Look for sellers on the first test of this level.

Taking out 1.1640 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a near-term rally into 1.1717 to 1.1762.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1582 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target will be a pivot at 1.1574, followed by the main bottom at 1.1524.