James Hyerczyk
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The Euro is trading slightly higher shortly before the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement and interest rate decision. The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. ECB President Mario Draghi is also expected to hold a press conference. Traders will be looking for comments on the simmering budget dispute between the European Union and the Italian government.

At 1103 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1402, up 0.0009 or +0.09%.

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Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1379 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to an eventual test of the August 15 bottom at 1.1301. Overcoming the previous bottom at 1.1432 will indicate short-covering. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 1.1555.

On the upside, the resistance zone is 1.1498 to 1.1559.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep downtrending Gann angle at 1.1435.

A sustained move under 1.1435 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into this week’s low at 1.1379.

Taking out 1.1379 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This should lead to a test of the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1342. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the EUR/USD in a bearish position. The primary downside target is 1.1301.

A sustained move over 1.1435 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next two target angles coming in at 1.1482 and 1.1495. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of these angles.

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