EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for October 25, 2019

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1099.
James Hyerczyk
European Central Bank

The Euro is edging higher against the U.S. Dollar on Friday after a volatile trading session on Thursday ended with the single-currency finishing lower for the day. The Euro was pressured by weak economic data, a somewhat dovish tone in the European Central Bank’s monetary policy statement and more confusion over Brexit.

Those three factors still exist, which leads me to believe today’s early price action is being fueled by position-squaring ahead of the weekend just because there may be some unexpected Brexit news. Furthermore, investors could be prepping for next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve two-day meeting. The financial markets expect the Fed to cut its benchmark rate by 25-basis points.

At 11:38 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1109, up 0.0004 or +0.04%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the October 21 closing price reversal top. A trade through 1.1179 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This move confirms the shift in momentum. A trade through 1.1163 will change the minor trend to up.

The minor range is 1.1179 to 1.1093. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1136 is resistance.

The second minor range is 1.0991 to 1.1179. Its 50% level at 1.1085 is support.

The main range is 1.0879 to 1.1179. If the pivot at 1.1085 fails as support then look for the selling to possible extend into its retracement zone at 1.1029 to 1.0994.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1099.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1099 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the EUR/USD into the pivot at 1.1136, followed closely by the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1139. Look for sellers on the first test of 1.1136 to 1.1139.

Taking out 1.1139 could trigger a surge into the next downtrending Gann angle at 1.1159, followed by the minor top at 1.1163.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1099 will signal the presence of sellers. The first two targets are yesterday’s low at 1.1093, followed by the pivot at 1.1085.

If 1.1085 is taken out then look for the selling to extend into an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1059. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this angle. If it fails then look for an acceleration to the downside with 1.1029 the next major target.

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