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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading lower on Tuesday, while remaining rangebound for a second trading session. The price action suggests investor indecision and impending volatility with the single currency trading inside Friday’s range. Perhaps keeping the market in a holding pattern are concerns over the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday.

At 11:49 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1083, down 0.0016 or -0.15%.

Traders are fairly confident the Fed will cut its benchmark rate 25-basis points on Wednesday. They are somewhat confident the central bank will pass on a December rate cut and probably cut again in March 2020. A hawkish Fed monetary policy statement will be bearish for the EUR/USD. A dovish Fed, or one that sees the possibility of a December rate cut will be bullish for the EUR/USD.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at 1.1179 on October 21.

The minor trend is down. A trade through 1.1073 will indicate the selling pressure is increasing. The minor trend will change to up on a trade through 1.1163.

The intermediate range is 1.0991 to 1.1179. The EUR/USD is currently straddling its 50% level or pivot at 1.1085. Trader reaction to this level could determine the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is 1.1179 to 1.1073. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1126 is resistance.

The main range is 1.0879 to 1.1179. Its retracement zone at 1.1029 to 1.0994 is the primary downside target and value zone. A trade into this area is likely to attract buyers.

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Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1083, the direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1085 and the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1079.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1085 will indicate the presence of buyers. If the move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1119, followed closely by the short-term pivot at 1.1126.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1079 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out 1.1073 should lead to a test of the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1059.

Crossing to the weak side of the angle at 1.1059 will put the EUR/USD in a bearish position with the next target the main 50% level at 1.1029.

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