James Hyerczyk
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The EUR/USD is trading lower after giving back its earlier gains. The single-currency continues to be dogged by political turmoil between Italy and the European Union. The price action suggests investors are selling the Euro on any hint of bad news on the hopes of an escalation of the problem.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on Tuesday when sellers took out 1.1526. There was little follow-through selling, however, because the market is currently trading inside a key retracement zone.

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A trade through 1.1505 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 1.1816.

The minor trend is also down. Today’s price action makes 1.1505 a new minor bottom.

The main range is 1.1301 to 1.1816. Its retracement zone is 1.1559 to 1.1498. The near-term direction of the EUR/USD will be determined by trader reaction to this zone.

If 1.1816 to 1.1505 becomes the new minor range then its retracement zone at 1.1661 to 1.1697 will become the primary upside target.

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Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1559.

A sustained move under 1.1559 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1536 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a further break into 1.1505, 1.1498 and an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1476.

The daily chart starts to open up under 1.1476. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 1.1389. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.1301 main bottom.

A sustained move over 1.1559 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then we could see a rally into a resistance cluster at 1.1651, 1.1661 and 1.1676.

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