EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for October 4, 2019

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar shortly before the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. The report is expected to show the economy added 145K jobs in September. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7% and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to have risen 0.3%. The report is due to be released at 12:30 GMT.

At 12:07 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.0981, up 0.0016 or +0.15%.

Traders are a little nervous ahead of this reports because of this week’s disastrous ISM manufacturing PMI survey, which indicated a contraction for the second straight month. Yesterday’s weaker-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report is also weighing on traders’ minds. Both reports fanned the flames of recession.

Despite this concerns some analysts are saying the NFP report will show hiring is slowing, but the report should be solid enough to offset concerns over recession.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom at 1.0879 on October 1.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 1.1110. A move through 1.0879 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is 1.1110 to 1.0879. Its retracement zone at 1.0995 to 1.1022 is potential resistance. The lower or 50% level of this range at 1.0995 stopped the rally on Thursday. Overcoming this zone could lead to an eventual change in trend.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0981, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.0999 and the 50% level at 1.0995.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.0999 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1019, the Fibonacci level at 1.1022 and the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1035.

The angle at 1.1035 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the 50% level at 1.0995 will signal the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending Gann angle at 1.0939 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the uptrending Gann angle at 1.0939.

If the angle at 1.0939 fails as support then look for the selling to extend into the next uptrending Gann angle at 1.0909. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.0879 main bottom.