James Hyerczyk
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EurDollar Notes

The Euro is under pressure shortly before the U.S. opening on Monday. The dollar is being supported by safe-haven buying due to weakness in the global equity markets. The Euro is being pressured by renewed concerns over Italy. Worries are being fueled by a fresh rise in Italian bond yields.

According to CNBC, “Italian politics remained a drag as the European Commission warned the country’s budget deficit breached past commitments, leading Rome to insist it would ‘not retreat’ from its spending plans.”

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At 1041 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1472, down 0.0048 or -0.41%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, traders are attempting to shift momentum to the upside with the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on October 4.

A trade through 1.1463 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The next main bottom comes in at 1.1301.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.1549 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside. This is followed by another minor top at 1.1596.

The main range is 1.1301 to 1.1816. Its retracement zone is 1.1559 to 1.1498. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD. Trading below this zone is helping to give the Forex pair today’s downside bias.

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Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at 1.1498.

A sustained move under 1.1498 will signal the presence of sellers. Trading below the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1491 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could create the downside momentum needed to take out 1.1463.

If 1.1463 fails as support then look for a break into the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1416. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the EUR/USD in a bearish position with an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1396 the next downside target. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.1301 main bottom.

A sustained move over 1.1498 will signal the presence of buyers. This could spike the EUR/USD into 1.1559. This will also put the Forex pair in a positon to post a closing price reversal bottom.

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