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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 17, 2019

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Sep 17, 2019, 11:38 UTC

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1020, the direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 1.1019.

EUR/USD

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar as investors position themselves ahead of the start of the U.S. Federal Reserve two-day monetary policy meeting. A relative calm in the crude oil market is also helping to encourage hedgers to sell their safe-haven dollar positions placed on Monday in response to a surge in oil prices.

At 11:23 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1020, up 0.0016 or +0.15%.

Traders expect the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points on Wednesday. However, they’re going to be more interested in how policymakers fell about rate cuts in October or December. If the Fed hints that it may take a “wait and see” in the future, the EUR/USD could feel renewed downside pressure.

Additionally, the chance of the Fed passing on a September rate cut is gaining support. “Traders in the fed funds futures market on Monday were pricing in a 34% chance that the Fed will stay put on rates; the probability was zero a month ago and just 5.4% a week ago, according to the CME,” CNBC reported.

EURUSD
Daily EUR/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1110 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 1.0927 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 1.0927 to 1.1110. Its retracement zone 1.1019 to 1.0997 is currently being tested. Since the main trend is up, buyers may be coming in on a test of this zone in an effort to form a secondary higher bottom.

The main range is 1.1164 to 1.0926. Its retracement zone at 1.1045 to 1.1073 is potential resistance.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1020, the direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 1.1019.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1019 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into a resistance cluster at 1.1045 to 1.1047. Overcoming 1.1047 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a rally into the main Fibonacci level at 1.1073.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1019 will signal the presence of sellers. The next downside targets are clustered at 1.1004, 1.0997 and 1.0987. This area was tested earlier today.

If 1.0987 fails as support then look for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 1.0957.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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