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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is under pressure on Monday as investors moved their money into the safe-haven U.S. Dollar after global equity market plunged. Euro zone bond yields were little moved in early Monday trading with last week’s dovish forward guidance from central banks keeping yields stuck in narrow ranges, while investors await a clutch of economic data this week.

At 14:35 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1752, down 0.0090 or -0.76%.

The Financial Times, citing two European Central Bank governing council members, reported that the ECB had launched a review of its emergency bond purchase scheme that was introduced in response to the coronavirus crisis in March, but the story had little impact on bonds yields.

In other news, European countries are likely to impose more restrictions on public life in the coming days as the number of daily coronavirus infections rises rapidly.

Coronavirus cases are rising so rapidly in Europe that the World Health Organization (WHO) warned last week that there was a “very serious situation” unfolding in the region, calling the resurgence in infections a “wake up call.”


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1917 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1737 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

On the upside, resistance is a fear of retracement levels at 1.1826, 1.1861 and 1.1882.

On the downside, the first target is a 50% level at 1.1691. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target the Fibonacci level at 1.1616.


Short-Term Outlook

The downside momentum should be strong enough to take out 1.1737 if tested. This should lead to quick test of the main 50% level at 1.1691.

Another lower top at 1.1872 means that a potentially bearish secondary top is forming. This will confirm the shift in momentum to the downside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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