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James Hyerczyk
Euro sign in Frankfurt

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday after hitting a two-month low earlier in the session as investors sought the safe-haven protection of the U.S. Dollar on growing concerns over the resilience of an economic recovery in the United States and Europe amid a second wave of coronavirus infections.

At 12:20 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1649, down 0.0012 or -0.10%.

Federal Reserve policymakers called on the U.S. government to provide more fiscal support, fueling a bout of selling in risky assets overnight, while European economic data worsened in recent days prompting investors to lighten their positions after a rally in August.

In other news, Euro Zone banks borrowed 174.5 billion Euros from the European Central Bank in the latest round of its ultra-cheap, three-year Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO), the ECB said on Thursday.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier today when sellers took out Wednesday’s low. The main trend changes to up on a move through 1.1872.

The main range is 1.1371 to 1.2011. The EUR/USD is currently testing its retracement zone at 1.1691 to 1.1616. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The new minor range is 1.1872 to 1.1633. Its retracement zone at 1.1752 to 1.1781 is a potential resistance area.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the EUR/USD into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1691 and the 61.8% level at 1.1616.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1616 will indicate the presence of sellers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major target the July 16 main bottom at 1.1371.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking 1.1691 and sustaining the move could trigger a short-term spike into the minor retracement zone at 1.1752 to 1.1781.

Side Notes

Holding inside 1.1691 to 1.1616 will suggest investor indecision and impending volatility.

A close over 1.1661 will form a closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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