EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 6, 2019

The Euro is trading steady to lower shortly before the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Traders expect the headline number to show the economy added about 158,000 jobs in August although some estimates are as high as 163,000. The unemployment rate is expected to come in unchanged at 3.7%. Average Hourly Earnings are estimated to have risen 0.3%.

At 12:19 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1029, down 0.0005 or -0.04%.

This report shouldn’t have an impact on the Fed’s September interest rate decision. Traders have priced in nearly a 100% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut. However, it could impact future rate decisions if there is a large miss. More importantly, it will be used as a gauge of the strength of the economy.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of a closing price reversal bottom at 1.0926 on September 3.

A trade through 1.1164 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.0926 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 1.1164 to 1.0926. Its retracement zone at 1.1045 to 1.1073 is acting like resistance. This zone is controlling the near-term of the EUR/USD.

The short-term range is 1.0926 to 1.1085. Its retracement zone at 1.1005 to 1.0987 is potential support. Counter-trend buyers may come in on a test of this zone, hoping to form a secondary higher bottom.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1029, the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the price cluster at 1.1045 to 1.1046.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1045 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could drive the EUR/USD into the short-term 50% level at 1.1005, followed by the support cluster at 1.0987 to 1.0986.

Crossing to the weak side of a downtrending Gann angle at 1.0985 will put the Forex pair in a position to accelerate to the downside with the next target angles 1.0956 and 1.0941. The latter is the last potential support angle before the 1.0926 main bottom.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1046 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the target cluster coming in at 1.1073 to 1.1074, followed closely by 1.1085. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the Gann angle at 1.1119. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.