EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for June 1, 2018

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar at the mid-session. The currency is posting an inside move ahead of the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 1230 GMT. This chart pattern indicates investor indecision and impending volatility.

At 1200 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1673, down 0.0019 or -0.15%.

Today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report could determine the pace of future Fed rate hikes later this year. The Non-Farm Employment Change calls for a gain of 189K jobs. The Unemployment Rate is expected to come in unchanged at 3.9%. The focus will be on Average Hourly Earnings which are expected to show a monthly rise of 0.2%.

U.S. Treasury yields could tumble if the average hourly earnings miss the estimate. This would be bearish for the EUR/USD

It comes down to U.S. Treasury yields at this time. Any report that suggests the Fed will raise rates at least 3 more times in 2018 will be bearish for the Euro. Softer economic data will dampen the number of potential rate hikes. This could drive the EUR/USD sharply higher.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The two-day rally has helped make 1.1510 a new main bottom. A trade though this level will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A move through 1.1830 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is 1.1997 to 1.1510. Its retracement zone at 1.1753 to 1.1811 is the primary upside target. Since the trend is down, sellers could show up on a test of this area.

The minor range is 1.1830 to 1.1510. Its 50% level or pivot is 1.1670. This price is acting like support.

The short-term range is 1.1510 to 1.1725. If 1.1670 fails as support then look for a pullback into its retracement zone at 1.1618 to 1.1592. This zone is important because aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this zone in an effort to form a secondary higher bottom.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at 1.1673, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1670.

A sustained move over 1.1670 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a retest of yesterday’s high at 1.1725, followed by a 50% level at 1.1753. Sellers could show up on the first test of this level. If taken out, we could see a spike into the Fib level at 1.1811.

A sustained move under 1.1670 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a move into 1.1618 to 1.1592. If buyers fail to hold this zone then look for the selling to extend into 1.1553 then 1.1510.

A close over 1.1650 will also produce a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.