EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for June 14, 2018

The EUR/USD is trading higher shortly before the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. Investors are also looking forward to a press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi, where he may announce the tapering of the central bank’s stimulus program.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 1.1841 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is up. It turned up earlier today on the rally through 1.1822. This changed momentum to the upside. A trade through 1.1725 will change the minor trend to down.

The main range is 1.1997 to 1.1510. Its retracement zone is 1.1811 to 1.1753. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD. The Forex pair is currently trading on the strong side of this zone.

The short-term range is 1.1510 to 1.1841. Its retracement zone at 1.1676 to 1.1636 is new support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 1.1811.

A sustained move over 1.1811 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the main top at 1.1841. Taking out this top will change the main trend to up. This could also trigger an acceleration to the upside since there is no resistance until 1.1997.

A sustained move under 1.1811 will signal the presence of sellers. This could fuel a break into 1.1753, followed by the minor bottom at 1.1725. If this bottom fails then look for a break into the short-term retracement zone at 1.1676 to 1.1636.

Look for volatility at 1145 GMT with the release of the ECB’s interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. After the initial move, volatility will return at 1230 GMT with the start of the Draghi press conference.