EUR/USD Mid-Session Update for June 13, 2019

The Euro is trading slightly higher on Thursday, but the range is tight and the volume seems a little low. The currency is also trading inside yesterday’s wide range, which tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility.

On Wednesday, buyers drove the Euro into last week’s high at 1.1348, but the move was met by a wall of resistance. Profit-taking and some aggressive selling helped produce a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. A trade through 1.1283 will confirm the chart pattern. This could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction.

At 12:28 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1289, up 0.0002 or +0.02%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the closing price reversal top chart pattern suggests momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside. A trade through 1.1283 will confirm the chart pattern.

Taking out 1.1348 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 1.1204.

The main retracement zone at 1.1278 to 1.1318 is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD. The currency is currently trading inside this range.

The short-term range is 1.1107 to 1.1348. If the reversal top is confirmed then its retracement zone at 1.1227 to 1.1199 becomes the primary downside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1297.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1297 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is 1.1318. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a rally into 1.1348.

Taking out 1.1348 could trigger a rally into the next downtrending Gann angle at 1.1372. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 1.1448 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1297 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a quick test of 1.1278 and an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1257. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 1.1227 the next downside target.

Overview

We’re still waiting for a confirmation of the closing price reversal top. Volatility is likely to pick up once 1.1283 is taken out and the chart pattern is confirmed.