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Christopher Lewis

The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, showing signs of life at the 50 day EMA but quite frankly there is enough noise out there to keep this market down. Beyond that, this is probably partial reaction to the German Trade Balance figures been a little better than anticipated but quite frankly at the end of the day it is a minor announcement. All things being equal the market is likely to find sellers above, especially near the 1.11 level and the 200 day EMA above there. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to show signs of exhaustion above, as we continue to see a lot of choppy behavior out there that should continue to weigh upon the Euro in general.

EUR USD Forecast Video 10.12.19

The 1.10 level underneath is massive support and therefore it’s only a matter of time before we test that level again. If we were to turn around a break down below that level, it’s very likely that the Euro could go to the 1.09 level. It’s not until we break above the 1.12 level that I would be convinced that the Euro can go higher, and at this point I think there isn’t enough to propel the market above there. Ultimately, if we did do that then it would be the end of the overall downtrend, but I don’t see that happening in the short term. There is still a gap below the 1.0750 level that has not been filled, and it’s likely that we will continue to see longer-term traders looking to get there.

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