EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro breaks down

The Euro initially tried to rally at the open on Monday, but as the markets raced toward safety, the US dollar got a bit of a boost against the common currency. Beyond that, there are recessionary headwinds and places like Germany, and that of course weighs heavily upon the Euro.
Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD daily chart, September 17, 2019

The Euro broke down a bit during the trading session on Monday as traders raced toward safety after the drone attacks in Saudi Arabia. Beyond that, we were also in a downtrend to begin with and had formed a shooting star on Friday so quite frankly this move was probably already set up. Beyond that, with Germany heading into a recession and Italy already there, it makes quite a bit of sense that the US dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro. All things being equal, traders have made money every time they have sold a rally in this pair for quite some time.

EUR USD Forecast Video 17.09.19

To the downside, we recently tested the 1.09 level, and are likely to go down to that area again. Whether we can break through there might be a different question, but right now it seems likely that we will at least test that theory. If we were to break down through there, then the market is likely to go much lower, perhaps trying to break through the recent bounce after the ECB meeting. Going forward, the 50 day EMA is likely to continue attracting attention, because quite frankly it has been very reliable for several months now. There is nothing positive about this chart, but that doesn’t mean that we go straight down either as the pair tends to be rather choppy. With that, I continue to sell short-term rallies for short-term gains. Trained trading is very difficult to do in this pair because of all of the noise.

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