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Christopher Lewis

The Euro initially trying to rise a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, but then turned around to show signs of negativity again. All things being equal though we seem to be stuck the 1.12 level, and the 1.1075 level. Beyond that, the 200 day EMA is sitting at the 1.12 level, an area that was previously the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in an uptrend. Quite often, when we break through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, it means that we will go looking towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. Longer-term, that means that we could be going as low as 1.05 USD. At this point, I’m not willing to swing for that big of a move but I do recognize that there is a lot of resistance above.

EUR/USD Forecast Video 06.11.19

If we were to break down below the 1.1075 level, it would suggest that we had formed a small “double top” and the 200 day EMA, sending this market lower. The European Central Bank should continue to be very loose with its monetary policy so that wouldn’t necessarily be a huge surprise. Granted, the Federal Reserve also seems to be relatively loose with its monetary policy but at the end of the day the US dollar is considered to be the “safety currency” when it comes to this pair. With the very poor economic numbers that we have seen coming out of the European Union as of late, it makes sense that we would continue to see downward pressure.

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